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Simulation Heuristic >> Hindsight Effect
Hindsight Effect
Hindsight effect is the after-the-fact feeling that some event was very likely or even bound to happen, even though it was not predicted to happen beforehand.
In thinking about the now-completed event, the scenario under which that event could have happened is trivially easy to imagine.
The connection between the initial situation and the final outcome is readily apparent - after the fact - and this makes other possible connections seem less plausible that they would otherwise seem.
Hindsight effect may be nothing more than a bias in which otherwise plausible outcomes are now less easy to imagine or construct than the outcome that did in fact occur.
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